What's this? The All-Star break? Seems like a good time to update my little Red Sox diary I have going here.

Uhh... let's see...

The Tigers and Mets... well... The Mets are going to win thier division... but obviously no tema in the NL is going to win the Series this year... the Tigers... they're playing above their heads. I swear. They're going to crash. Probably still win the AL Wild Card, though... but it'll be closer than you think. Although, to be fair to them, Bonderman really has finally \"figured it out\" and with him and Verlander at the top and Zumaya closing, they can be a force.


I really hope the Yankees make a stupid decision and trade Phil Hughes. Like... a lot.



'Tek is going to start hitting better... Nixon and Gonzalez are playing a bit above their head right now... Beckett has to start pitching better, I think he will... Youkilis is great... Lowell would be comeback player of the year if it weren't for Jim Thome... Loretta needs to start walking more and knocking an XBH now and again... Papi could win the MVP... ditto for the happy and not-going-anywhere Manny... Wily Mo is finally back... Coco will pick it up soon... Papelbon would be the unanimous Rookie of the Year any year that didn't have Fransisco Liriano... Schilling has been fantastic... Wakefield is Wakefield... Lester looks as good as advertised, but he needs to stop walking everyone... Clement might be back in a few weeks... DelCarmen and Hansen are stablizing the pen... Timlin is old, but solid... Foulke might retire... Wells might retire...


I don't see any big trades happening this year for the Red Sox...


That's all I got.

I'd have to agree. The Red Sox really solid, they really don't need to make a deal, unless they could dump Wells.

So what do you think about the Blue Jays? Do you think they'll be on the heals of the Sox and Yanks down the stretch? I think there is a good chance that the wild card winner will be either the Jays or Yanks, especially if the Tigers cool off.

I think that if Burnett stays healthy and pitches better they can hang... although their bullpen up to Ryan (who might be the best closer in the league right now) is shit. I think it will be closer than in years past... they might even win 90.


They'll have a tough time picking up 10 games on Detriot. I think Minnesota has a better chance of picking up 11 on Detriot than the Blue Jays have of picking up 10.

By the way, if Detriot only has a .500 record the rest of the way... they'll have 96 wins on the year... so, that's why I said, \"It'll be closer than you think\" and not \"they won't win it.\"

Wow, 96 wins? Incredible.

IT'S ALIVE! (and still just a blog for the most part... but it's interesting for me)


So much going on, so much going on. Detroit finally lost, but not untill they got to the World Series... and I'd also like to point out... 95 wins... so it's fair to say they had a bit of a collapse in the second half. I predict a Indians/White Sox like fall for them next year... maybe. Bonderman is for real and so is Zumaya out of the pen. Verlander will probably be pretty good, too, but he wasn't as good as his ERA indicated for much of last year. If he doesn't start striking more guys out it will look bad for him... I just don't think they have much past that still.

The NL really did suck last year and could be worse this year. Terrible Series, too.


Soo... onto next year... OMG THE RED SOX FREE AGENTS TRADES WTF EXCITEMENT!


I'm sure you heard they won the posting for future ace Daisuke Matsuzaka. I'm very excited. Like... crazy excited. You should see this man pitch. Reminds me of Pedro. He won't be that good, but I'm just telling you that's how amazing his stuff looks. I've been looking forward to him coming over to the U.S. for more than a year.

So, next year will be Schilling's last year. You know he'll go all out.

Papelbon is a confirmed starter for next year... I think he can be pretty decent.

Lester is out untill whenever he's better. I just want to see him up and smiling, you know. If he can pitch at some point next year, that's great, but I just hope he gets better.

Beckett will be better next year. I'm telling you. This year was a combination of adjusting to a new league and horrendous luck (and luck is statistically measurable -- to a degree-- in baseball, so I'm not just shooting shit.)
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So... uhhh... the market right now is driving me nuts. Crazy contracts, crazy potential crazy crazy crazy. Barry Zito is going to get stupid money from the Mets. He's a solid #2 pitcher, but since when is that worth $15+ a year of 7 years! (*remembers Mike Mussina's contract* oh right... that year)

The Red Sox are about to sign J.D. Drew for... well, the rumors are all over the place, but I'm pretty confident they'll sign him...

and that opens up:

FUCKING CRAZY TRADE POSSIBILITIES WHOA!

Do they trade Wily Mo? Coco? ... dare I say it... Manny?

I mean... look at what Soriano, Lee, and Drew are going to get... Manny's contract actually looks reasonable! They could get almost full value for him!


... but wait... that means he's worth his contract... so... keep him. Trade Coco for Brian Fuentes... or Wily Mo for Scott Linebrink... and trade Mike Lowell for more relief help and then steal Morgan Ensberg from the Astros who are retarded and trying to give him away... because obviously they're retarded. Did I mention that the Astros are retarded for thinking Aubrey Huff is worth more than Morgan Ensberg? Because they are. They might be stupid enough to give him away for Brandon Moss and Jed Lowrie... okay, maybe not, but I think the Sox should go for him.


Umm... and they could sign Eric Gagne and Justin Speier... whatever, they need all the bullpen help they can get.


Man... I'm pretty sure anything could happen this offseason.

I like the rumor of Clemens coming to Boston as the closer. Of course it won't happen, but it's fun to think about it.

Crazy rumor. Crazy crazy crazy.

*cross posts from teh froams*

Yeah, I wrote a lot for my pre-season post this year. Wasn't feeling well and had nothing to do.

So... here it is. Big intro section is because I'd never posted about sports there before:
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

All hail the overdog!

Look, I'm from New England. I have memories of Scott Cooper: 2 time All-Star and Mo Vaughn's rookie season. I remember listening to them talking about up-and-coming minor leaguers Trot Nixon and Nomar Garciaparra on WEEI (and wondering how Nomar could possibly be good enough to take over for the legendary John Valentin.. so, it just isn't my fault that I'm now a fan of a team with a $160 million payroll that is expected to win 100 games every year.


So... I've been doing pre-season projections since... forever. Not exactly... scientific, but whatever. Started out with pure guessing, worked my way up to guessing from career numbers, then decided to look mostly at the previous three years, then decided to take how I thought the player would age into account, this years I'm trying to include more peripheral statistics (BABIP, bb/pa, bb/k) into account. I also try to throw my opinion of a player's mental attributes into account (I think that J.D. Drew is a perfect fit in Boston and Julio Lugo, Wily Mo Pena, Manny, and Papi are going to be entertaining as hell together.) Also, I'm an optimist. Oh, and I never predict major injuries, but I do predict that some players will get fewer ABs than others... and that it might be do to them being hurt.

So, yeah... AB, AVG, BB, HR, 2B, 3B, SB, CS, RBI, R, (comment)... I don't really know why I predict RBI and R anymore... I know both of those numbers rely too much on the rest of the team to be meaningful in a projection... but, it's just for fun anyway, so what the hell.


Line-up:

1: Julio Lugo RH SS-- 548, .287, 55, 8, 43, 4, 18, 5, 73, 105 (I like him, but unless he repeats his 2005 performance--and he could--he really shouldn't be hitting lead-off. Hopefully Youk's D at first will help him cut down on the throwing errors.)

2: Kevin Youkilis RH 1B-- 593, .282, 100, 15, 42, 2, 3, 1, 71, 110 (This is more or less the same year he had last year. I think he'll be in better shape this year and fade less down the stretch, but the numbers should come out about the same.)

3: David Ortiz LH DH-- 582, .304, 117, 49, 38, 1, 1, 0, 142, 120 (Papi! This is going to be the year of the DH. Ortiz, Hafner, and Thome are all going to get good solid looks at the MVP with Giambi and the Big Hurt not far behind.)

4: Manuel Aristides Ramirez RH LF-- 535, .312, 102, 41, 32, 1, 1, 1, 133, 111 (I love Manny. I don't care what all the haters say. I love Manny.)

5: J.D. Drew LH RF-- 502, .281, 106, 27, 35, 5, 5, 1, 112, 87 (Like I said. Optimism. He's perfectly capable of this, though. And I think he's going to avoid any major injury.

6: Mike Lowell RH 3B-- 570, .283, 44, 19, 45, 1, 0, 1, 84, 76 (Great defense, blahablahblah, leader in the clubhouse, blahblahblah.)

7: Jason Varitek SH C-- 437, .279, 51, 17, 27, 1, 1, 1, 67, 62 (Yeah, it's a bounce back season. Yeah, he's an aging catcher. But there's no way in hell he has another year like last year. Also, I think he knows this could be his last year as a real full time catcher with George Kotteras knocking on the door in 2008. I also think that this year he's going to be given some extra rest. Probably on days when Beckett is pitching.)

8: Coco Crisp SH CF-- 541, .310, 46, 18, 41, 5, 28, 7, 72, 87 (K: Is his name really Coco? J: No, no. That would be a silly and ridiculous name. K: Haha, yeah. J: His real name is Covelli.--- Anyway, I still think the guy can be good. Myabe he won't be the Johnny Damon clone I thought he'd be last year... but he's better than he showed last year.)

9: Dustin Pedroia RH 2B-- 533, .295, 57, 12, 30, 2, 2, 1, 63, 88 (He's just like David Eckstein. Except with more power. And better plate discipline. And less speed. No... wait... I guess that means the only thing he has in common with David Eckstein is that he's short, white and never strikes out.)


Bench:

* Wily Mo Pena RH OF-- 385, .265, 29, 31, 23, 4, 2, 1, 72, 51 (*throws numbers at the wall* So... Tito says he's going to try to get Big Wily Style 400 ABs--sure, you are Tito.. if someone gets hurt--I uhh... look, he's... he's one of a kind. Statistically and personality. One of a kind. If he ever gets to play full time he's going to hit hitting 60 home runs... and strike out 200 times.)

* Alex Cora LH IF-- N, o, b, o, d, y, c, a, r, e, s (Tito and Alex sitting in a tree... Yeahyeah, okay. Whatever. Smart player. Classy. Shut up, Mr. Francona. He's just a fucking back-up middle infielder.)

* Eric Hinske LH Corners-- ............................ (If there aren't same major injuries, he'll be traded away.)

* Doug Mirabelli RH C-- ...slight bounce-back.. (He can catch Tim Wakefield. Nobody else can catch Tim Wakefield. The end.)

~~ Dave Murphy(OF), George Kotteras(C), and Jacoby Ellsbury(OF) could all make contributions this year. And maybe Brandon Moss(OF) and Chad Spann(3B/1B) will show enough in AAA to be valuable in some capacity next year.


Pitchers:

I don't do predictions for pitchers. Too many variables. I do comments for pitchers.

Starters: (In no real order)

1: Tim Wakefield (Timmy throw knuckleball. Knuckleball move funny. Silly Knuckleball. Charlie Hough threw silly knuckleball until he was 46 and never got worse or better. Predicting knuckleballers statistics is silly as predicting knuckleball movement.)

2: Daisuke Matsusaka (Worth every penny.)

3: Josh Beckett (If his ERA isn't a run lower this year, I'll eat Trot Nixon's hat.)

4: Curt Schilling (I think it's his last year in Boston. I think he'll have a fine season. Probably a little better than last year, but not much.)

5: Jonathon Papelbon (Curt Schilling Jr.)

Jonathon Lester is going to be in AAA until someone gets hurt. If you don't know much about him think of a cross between Andy Pettitte and Lance Armstrong. Except that Jon has more balls than the two of them put together.

Clay Buchholz might get a September call-up. Remember the name. Clay Buchholz. Future All-Star.

Relievers:

* Joel Pineiro RHP CL? (He... uhh... stranger things have happened. He's capable of being a good closer... in theory)

* Brendan Donnelly RHP SU (He's solid. I mean. Yeah, solid is a good word. He's not bad. Bad he isn't.)

* Mike Timlin RHP SU (He's... he's old. Please don't put him in too much. I mean *looks at the rest of the bullpen*... okay, maybe he's not that bad.)

* Hideki Okajima LHP SU (I think he'll end up with the best ERA in the 'pen.)

* J.C. Romero LHP Specialist (As long as they don't put him up against righties too often he'll do just fine.)

* Julian Tavarez RHP LR (Or closer. Goddamnit, don't make him closer. Tito, just because the man is a lunatic does not mean he should close. His value is in flexibility, being able to pitch a lot of inning out of the pen, and keeping Manny sane... or making him look sane by comparison... I'm not sure which one he really does.)

* Kyle Snyder RHP Something (I think he'll be the last man in the pen to begin the year.... I'm not sure what to expect. He gets a lot of K's and he looked pretty good last year in short stints. Kind of the wild card here.)


Quick list of guys in AAA/AA guys who are capable of being better than everyone who's going to start in the Red Sox 'pen this year.

* Craig Hansen CL (Rushed, misused and statistically unlucky last year. Also, he lost the feel of his slider... that's important, too. If he gets it back he's Joe Nathan. I think he'll get it back this year and be the Sox closer next year... unless this next guy is.)

* Bryce Cox CL (Hard, hard sinking fastball. A slider that is rated as one of the best in the game... but he's only had them for 3 months. If he can keep his delivery consistent he's Brad Lidge.)

* Manny DelCarmen SU (He's going to be a solid 8th inning guy. Probably could be this year. Fastball, curve. He might make the team out of spring training, but they'd have to release Kyle Snyder. He was Boston's second best reliever for big chunks of last

*paces back and forth nervously*


Maybe some talking here tomorrow.

I thought I might have some... greatest LHP of the last 30 years related news to write about... but it looks like nothing doing... at least for now.

So... hey, I wish I had posted my non-Red Sox predictions over here because they rocked... but, I mean Jesus Christ, I had almost every Red Sox doing about 5x better and they won the World Series anyway... I guess I need to check the optimism on my predictions a bit more next year...


Alright. Already some exciting trades going down this year... not even including that little rumor about a guy from a Minnesota team that shall remain nameless, but probably rhymes with Dwins.



# In the Eastern division of the AAAA league known as the NL the Mets made themselves another bad trade that will hurt them in the future without making them good enough to get to the playoffs next year.

Lastings Milledge may or may not be able to stick long term in CF, but his bat would play just fine in either corner as it is and still could get much better.

Going the other way is a 32 yr old no-hit catcher who is past his prime on defense and would probably be better suited as a 2nd catcher on a contender at this point in his career and a cost-controlled, but pretty painfully average 29 yr old RF.

Summary: Good job by the Nationals on getting a young toolsy OF for older spare parts. Teams in their position need to take all the opportunities they can to get high-impact players.
Not really a terrible trade for the Mets as reliable, cheap & average production is more valuable than you might think to a team that is still a signing or so away from being good.... still should have been able to get more for Lastings.

# The Nationals had actually already picked up a young CF with all-star talent shortly before this. They traded a decent low-minors pitching prospect to the Rays for Elijah Dukes. Umm... epitome of high-risk, high-reward. Dukes has some serious issues and the Rays got about as much return for him as they could expect considering he's constantly on the verge of being thrown in jail or an asylum.

Summary: Along with white boy Austin Kearns, the Gnats outfield now consists of Milledge, Dukes, and Wily Mo Pena... the makings of either the best young OF in the majors or the worlds greatest sitcom. I predict that somewhere between 1 and all of the 3 will look terrible and/or will be in the Hall of Fame 20 years from now.


# Matt Garza and Delmon Young. Great trade all around. Makes both teams better. I like it more from the Rays side, but Delmon could still be the next Vlad... though he'd better play a lot better next year if he wants to keep that title... like 200 points of OPS better.

Anyway, I think this helps further push the Rays into position to contend in the East in 2009.

# White Sox get Carlos Quentin from the D-Backs in exchange for a minor league slugger.

Quentin bores me for some reason... I don't know... it's a good trade for the White Sox. It's not going to put them back into the AL Central race, but it's not a trade they're likely to regret.

# Excitement!

Miguel Cabrera and Donny Willis (I'm calling him Donny from now on) to Los Tigres in exchange for Cam Maybin (I'm going to make these guys sounds as nerdy as I can), Andy Miller, Dallas Trahern, Eulogio De La Cruz and two just-above-scrapheap quality properties.

Just a great trade for the Tigers. Maybin and Miller are both very, very highly rated as prospects and are considered close to major league ready... but they're also among the riskiest of the game's top prospects.

SUMMATION: Miggy is the heir to Manny as the next 'greatest right handed hitter in the game.' And Donny is just icing on top. They got him as a throw in in this deal. Even with all of his recent struggles, that's just silly.